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the pico-letter V9.09 - gap intelligence 2012 Office Printing Year in Review

Believe it or not, 2012 was a positive year in the office printing industry.  Sure there was no shortage of doom and gloom, which make for a good headline or scare tactic, but amid the challenges, something very encouraging happened.  After years of dealing with the obstacles facing the printing industry in a tactical manner, this year it appears that more vendors actually came to accept the changes that are taking place and started to strategically change with it.  That’s a good thing.

So with that, I give you my take on the office printing industry’s major trends and events of 2012.  It’s not all good news, but it’s what happened.


The Secular Paper Cliff

It’s official.  Printing behavior is changing, page volumes are falling, and a lot of pages are not coming back.   

Really, this does not even count as news or analysis at this point.  Even the manufacturers are now coming out and saying it in public, rather than around the water cooler.  However, we have yet to pinpoint how fast and how far this decline will go, and if there is a steeper drop waiting in the future.  And that’s the problem.



 


I’m far from a secular decline denier, but I do not count myself as part of the ‘print is dead’ crowd, and I feel that the challenges facing the print industry have been misrepresented.  In the last four years the industry faced the worst recession in decades, the emergence of MPS, a pair of devastating natural disasters, and the tablet and cloud computing boom.  Each of these severely impacted print volumes and industry financials, and although MPS will continue to drive declines, only information and communication alternatives such as tablets and cloud technology stand to have a lasting impact on print behavior.  

The fact is, it’s too early to tell what impact these technologies will have, but it is not too early for vendors to calmly wrap some strategy around a range of scenarios, while continuing to invest in maintaining a profitable or even growing imaging business.  I guarantee that rash moves to diversify from print pose a lot more immediate danger to our industry than the actual secular factors impacting it.



The Diversification Race Heats Up

The race to diversify from print reached a fever pitch this year as manufacturers’ investments and messaging continued to migrate towards services and solutions.  

Of course, many manufacturers’ diversification initiatives have been under way for some time, but there was a major difference this year.  With the exception of a handful of regional channel acquisitions, nearly all of the key investments made by print industry vendors targeted companies from outside markets.  Meanwhile, a number of vendors that still generate the vast majority of their revenue and profit from print, adopted a stark change in Wall Street-facing messaging intended to solidify their identity as a services and/or solutions-oriented company.  

We certainly can’t argue against the need to expand to new and adjacent products and services, but this year added even more proof that there is a fine line between strategic diversification and questionable strategy.  There are billions of dollars in combined acquisition-driven goodwill charges and write-offs to prove it.

The diversification race certainly isn’t going anywhere, but it stands to reason that the most successful vendors will be those that make the smartest moves, not the biggest.  And until then, it will probably be a good idea for vendors to continue to embrace their print divisions in their messaging.  Their clients, employees, and resellers are listening.



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[I feel that the challenges facing the print industry have been misrepresented.  In the last four years the industry faced the worst recession in decades, the emergence of MPS, a pair of devastating natural disasters, and the tablet and cloud computing boom.  Each of these severely impacted print volumes and industry financials, and although MPS will continue to drive declines, only information and communication alternatives such as tablets and cloud technology stand to have a lasting impact on print behavior.QUOTE]

The author surely was looking at a different graph than was included here. Since Y2K I see a drop in shipments of +37% with a definite and steady decrease YoY for the most part over the last 12 years. Anyone ever esitmate the number of "pages" stored on your Flash Drives/Tablets/SmartPhones ?

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