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In the 1970s television series Columbo, there was never the slightest element of surprise: you knew from the first few minutes how the crime was done, who did it and how it would all end.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange’s decision on Wednesday to remove Toshiba from “security on alert” status will leave many convinced they are in the final stretch of a similarly back-to-front show: a disheveled but inexorable drama whose finale, in which Toshiba escapes being delisted, has always been known.

It may still have that ending but there remains the chance of at least one big off-script twist. The forces demanding the expected outcome — which most prominently include Toshiba itself, the Japanese government and the nation’s largest banks — have relentlessly pushed the idea that the conglomerate’s massive government contracts, vast labour force, wide base of individual investors and commitments to the Fukushima nuclear clean-up, make it too big to fail (TBTF). The TSE, left with making the actual call, has been forced to put on an uncomfortable performance where it wears the clothes of unbending stickler but ultimately agrees with the TBTF lobbying.  read the rest here

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